Sunday, May 31, 2009

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Rebound rally for real economic recovery?

In the midst of negative GDP, high unemployment and bankruptcy rates, the rally of stock market from the low of 11344 of HSI on March 9 to the highest of 18171 on May 29 this year gave us signals of possible economic recovery in the near future. The Dow Jones is also on the tear since March 9, 09. Is the rally an illusion or simply a delusion?

In our modern economies regardless of any political or social system, we constantly fight with the paradox of “inflation” versus “deflation”; “high interest rate” versus “low or even zero interest rate”; “taxation” versus “welfare” to maintain or achieve the economic prosperity for all concerned but in fact most of the time for the benefit of a small percentage of people only. Economic cycles of “up and down” are made to be inevitable so to have games of manipulation that the uninformed or misinformed could easily lose the games.

Presented with conflicting data about the future of our economy, it may be more real to ask ourselves,” How can I live better?”, “How can our economy do better?”

“Economics” is the social science that studies the production, distribution and the consumption (using) of commodities (things). The word originally meant “the science or art of managing a house or a household.” From this grew up a study of the whole community as a connected activity.

The recent rally is more due to the fact of the increase of money supply in a low or zero interest investment environment than playing with the idea of anticipated economic recovery by the investment communities; which is actually without much of the current supporting data of improvement or reversed downtrend in the production. Unless we have real increase in our production and productivity, then we have increased distribution and consumption. Otherwise, the one-sided increase in money supply may inevitably lead to inflation or any type of "bubble" eventually.

So what one really needs to ask, is “How can I raise my production?” Regardless of any field you are working, there should be some valuable products or services you are responsible in producing so to keep you posted. The real economic prosperity for any individual or any nation in fact depends on what the valuable products and services one can produce. Possibly the only protection one can have for any economic environment is to “produce” with valuable products and services.

Let’s roll our sleeves to make real production for real economic recovery.